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Japan 27-10 Italy: What Broke in the Nations Championship Opener

Giappone Italia 27-10 Nations Championship 2026 analisi sconfitta azzurri Tokyo

Nobody saw it coming like this. Italy fell 27-10 at Tokyo’s Chichibunomiya Stadium in their Nations Championship opener, beaten by a Japan side that bookmakers and pundits had almost unanimously written off. And it is not just the result: the performance itself leaves a trail of doubts.

It comes straight after the sour ending against Wales in the last Six Nations: two poor performances in a row, in very different times and places but with the same script — Italy as favourites, Italy beaten. A warning light Gonzalo Quesada cannot ignore.

The illusion of the first five minutes

And yet the start told a different story. On 5 minutes Garbisi found Juan Ignacio Brex’s angled run, and the centre burst through at the 22 to score: 7-0 with the conversion. The short-side move between Menoncello and Brex, attempted twice in the opening minutes, looked like the product of a week of targeted work. Then Italy simply stopped.

From that moment the Azzurri never truly looked like hurting Japan again. The scoresheet is blunt: after Brex’s try, Italy’s only other points came from a Garbisi penalty on 43 minutes, at the end of the first half, born of the pack’s one real surge — a lineout won through Zambonin and an advancing maul.

A breakdown given away

The first culprit is the breakdown. The Italy we know contests every ball on the floor; the Tokyo version almost never did. The first real Italian turnover only arrived in the second half, through Malik Faissal. Zuliani’s absence matters, but for DanPat it cannot be the whole explanation: when you do not tackle going forward, contesting becomes a lost cause — and Italy were rarely dominant in the tackle, with slow defensive resets.

A scrum turned neutral

The other question mark is the scrum, the trademark of Italy’s last Six Nations. Against Japan it was neutral: a penalty won here, one conceded there, never the dominant platform seen against Ireland, England and France. And the doubts inevitably touch the staff changes: since 1 July the scrum has passed from Andrea Moretti to Roberto Santamaria, formerly of Zebre, while Sergio Parisse has taken charge of the lineout and maul.

Judging them now would be unfair — this was game one of the new era, and Japan’s scrum is anything but soft — but every area of the game told the same story: a decent lineout in the first half that struggled after the break, a maul without thrust, and trouble under the high ball, with Faissal only growing into the game in the second half. Simone Ferrari, a cornerstone of the front row, was also missing.

Why did Japan win?

Because they did the simple things well: an organised defence, lightning support play at the breakdown, and Saito’s tempo at scrum-half. When Italy erred, the Brave Blossoms rebuilt patiently; when they attacked, they were always first to the support. That is how the tries came — Dearns on 11 minutes, Matsunaga on 17, and Gunter early in the second half to seal it.

“Japan played a great game, in my view — a great game in Japan’s essence: doing the simple things, done well.”

Gunter’s Player of the Match award summed up the night: on this performance, the only thing Japan missed was a fourth, bonus-point try.

The individuals: plenty of work, little light

In the gloom, DanPat’s pick was Brex: the try, 46 metres carried and two line breaks. Lorenzo Cannone (69 metres, 16 tackles) and captain Lamaro (19 tackles) put in huge shifts. But the sore points abound: the half-backs struggled, with Varney undone by two costly errors at the base and Garbisi imprecise in his choices, throwing a couple of interceptions; Menoncello never got into the game; Ioane had little impact.

Pani was unlucky, limping off on 13 minutes; his replacement Allan could not turn the tide, not helped by a scrum that never gave him a platform. On the night of Faissal’s and Ortombina’s Italy debuts, the winger’s second-half growth remains one of the few positives to take home.

The All Blacks test

The calendar shows no mercy: on Saturday 11 July, Wellington and the All Blacks await. For DanPat the week must be above all mental, on top of the physical recovery: the cold shower of Tokyo raises deep questions — starting with this Italy’s real athletic level — and against New Zealand doubts are punished. Paradoxically, though, going in as clear underdogs might free the mind. The answer comes in seven days.

Read also

How does a scrum go from dominant to neutral in a few months? Have your say in the YouTube comments and subscribe to DanPat Rugby: the reaction to New Zealand-Italy is already on the schedule.

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