News · Summer Tests

Japan v Italy: Quesada’s bold calls, two debutants and our prediction

Preview Italia-Giappone Nations Championship, analisi DanPat Rugby

The wait is over. On Saturday 4 July at 5:40pm in Tokyo — 10:40am in Italy — the Azzurri open their Nations Championship account against Japan at Chichibunomiya Stadium. And Gonzalo Quesada has gone bold: two debutants in the starting XV for the first game of the new global competition.

Faissal and Ortombina: debuts that make a statement

The headline picks are on the flank and the wing. Malik Faissal, a 20-year-old winger who has just joined Northampton, starts ahead of Louis Lynagh — a Six Nations starter who misses out on the 23 altogether. The second debutant is Alessandro Ortombina, 23, the Zebre back-rower, who packs down at flanker alongside captain Michele Lamaro, with Lorenzo Cannone at No 8 and Ross Vintcent — fresh from a superb end to the season with Exeter — held back on the bench.

Quesada has made no secret of it: these are selections with the 2027 World Cup in mind.

The Italy line-up: Varney-Garbisi at half-back, Pani at full-back

Stephen Varney makes his first start since November, partnering Paolo Garbisi. In midfield it is the well-worn Menoncello-Brex pairing: Tommaso Menoncello makes his 28th consecutive start, the only player to have started every game of the Quesada era. Lorenzo Pani wins the full-back shootout with Marin and Allan, flanked by Ioane and Faissal. Up front: Fischetti and Riccioni at prop — Riccioni replacing the injured Ferrari — Di Bartolomeo at hooker, Niccolò Cannone and Zambonin in the second row.

Italy (15-1): Pani; Faissal, Brex, Menoncello, Ioane; P. Garbisi, Varney; L. Cannone, Lamaro (c), Ortombina; Zambonin, N. Cannone; Riccioni, Di Bartolomeo, Fischetti.

A 5+3 bench brings two significant returns: Gianmarco Lucchesi, last seen in blue at the 2025 Six Nations, and Vintcent. Tommaso Allan — closing in on 90 caps — is there for experience and a kicking game when it matters.

What time is Japan v Italy and where can you watch it?

Japan v Italy kicks off at 5:40pm local time on Saturday 4 July (10:40am CET) at Chichibunomiya Rugby Stadium in Tokyo. In Italy the game is live on Sky Sport Uno and free-to-air on TV8 and Cielo. It opens a three-Test summer: the All Blacks in Wellington on 11 July, then Australia in Perth on the 18th.

Head-to-head and prediction

This will be the eleventh meeting, and history leans heavily Italy’s way: Japan have won just once, 26-23 in Tokyo in 2014. The recent record is emphatic — 42-21 in Treviso in 2023, 42-14 in Sapporo in the summer of 2024. Italy sit tenth in the world rankings, Japan twelfth. But beware: this is midsummer in Japan, heat and humidity included, and the Brave Blossoms at home are never a gentle evening.

This is a game Italy have a duty to win.

For DanPat the keys are three: winning the forward battle, controlling the tempo so Japan never get to play at full throttle, and surviving the first twenty minutes of a team that starts like a train. The prediction: Italy by 8-15 points, with the bench making the difference in the final quarter — exactly where Japan historically fade.

Read more: Inside Japan’s chosoku rugby: student fly-half Ito debuts · Italy U20 face Japan and New Zealand

Who wins, and by how much? Tell us in the comments and subscribe to DanPat Rugby on YouTube.

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