Scrum and metres to South Africa, the win to New Zealand

There’s an unwritten rule in rugby that has held forever: if you own the scrum and the physical exchanges, you don’t lose that game. At Ellis Park South Africa owned both. They lost by seventeen points, five tries to one.

It’s the exception that proves the rule. It’s also the best way to understand how the first Test was really decided.

The numbers said Springboks

Look at the full-time data and the result seems pre-written. 298 post-contact metres for South Africa against 197 for New Zealand — more than a hundred metres of difference off an almost identical carry count, 96 to 86. Translated: the Springboks were going forward every time they took the ball up.

And it doesn’t stop there. South Africa finished with 60 per cent of the territory, seven line breaks to six, eleven dominant tackles to six. The scrum was close to total until the 54th minute. Even the discipline column favoured the hosts: fourteen penalties conceded by New Zealand to ten.

Given that picture, anybody would have backed South Africa.

So where was the game lost?

At the breakdown. Twenty-three turnovers conceded by South Africa to New Zealand’s fourteen, and fourteen turnovers won by the All Blacks to five. That isn’t a margin, it’s a one-way street — and it happened in precisely the area where the Springboks were supposed to hold the better hand.

Then there’s the defence. New Zealand finished at 86 per cent tackle completion against South Africa’s 78: 129 tackles completed to 89, with 21 misses to 25. When you stop tackling and hand over fourteen turnovers, no scrum will save you.

The number that sums it all up, though, is a different one, and it concerns the metres that matter. South Africa entered the opposition 22 nine times and came away with a single try. Afterwards Dave Rennie did the maths: 0.9 points per entry, against a South African season average of five and a half.

The names inside the numbers

South Africa had their impact men. Jasper Wiese finished with eighteen carries, the most of anyone on the pitch, Pieter-Steph du Toit with ten, and every time either got the ball the New Zealand defence had a problem.

On the other side, though, sit the two entries that explain the result. Jordie Barrett put together fifteen tackles and five turnovers won — on his own, as many as the entire Springbok side. Codie Taylor added eleven tackles.

And then the flip side: Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu lost five balls, a match high shared with Will Jordan. Too many. If the plan is to be the Springboks’ starting 10 on the road to the World Cup — and everyone assumes it is — it’s worth remembering that in South Africa the queue for that jersey is long.

They usually say that in rugby, if you have the scrum and the physical dominance, you never lose that game.

Ellis Park said otherwise. Which is exactly why it’s worth paying attention.

Read also: All Blacks stun Springboks 33-16 in first Test · Chaotic finish at Ellis Park: Springboks down to 13 and the TMO overruled

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